More appraisal woes - Part 2

I have a deal in contract now going through this very problem. Inexperienced, inadequate appraisers hold the power to disrupt and scuttle deals (my appraiser clearly didn't have a basic understanding of how to equalize comps to the subject property, something even I learned before obtaining my broker's license).

Since national lenders cannot maintain lists of appraisers in every community, they long ago began outsourcing the process to the management companies, who had claimed about 30 percent of the market before the code took effect. Now that the lenders are the ones ordering all the appraisals, the management companies are expanding their share.

Real estate groups say the management companies, with the competition from brokers and agents eliminated, are now trying to fatten their profit margins by hiring appraisers as cheaply as possible.

These inexperienced appraisers, often traveling many miles to a market they do not know well, are scuttling legitimate deals, the agents claim.

This has to change. There has to be an appeals process to keep inexperienced appraisers from ruining deals, and the market by extension.

SOURCE: NY TIMES

More appraisal woes

The good news is that sales volumes of new construction are rising; the bad news is they're doing so despite growing trouble with appraisals.

I can't seem to talk to anyone in the real estate industry on any topic without hearing something about appraisals. We've been over the new appraisal rules, requiring the fire wall between lenders and appraisers. We know the new rules are resulting in less qualified appraisers, perhaps with no knowledge of a local market, mucking up the process.

Now we're hearing from builders that appraisers are using distressed properties, that is foreclosures and short sales, as comps for new construction. In her monthly homebuilding Survey, analyst Ivy Zelman notes:

Commentary in this month’s survey was dominated by frustration with inconsistencies in the appraisal process. Survey respondents are concerned that these appraisal issues will make it difficult to stabilize home values, as appraisers are being extremely conservative using foreclosures and short sales predominantly as comps, based on fears of potential backlash or liability.

Home builders are in direct competition with foreclosures in many markets, because a lot of foreclosures are new construction.

SOURCE: CNBC

5 reasons why real estate rebound remains shaky

CNBC breaks down the top 5 reasons why real estate hasn't fully rebounded yet; none of this will come as a surprise to followers of HighRiseSF, since we've been talking about these issues for the past month:

Despite hopes that the market would begin showing signs of life this spring, the latest housing data suggests otherwise. Instead, the sector remains stubbornly moribund—trapped in a spiral of declining prices, increasing mortgage rates, unemployment and several unforeseen factors.

And with many experts believing that a real estate rebound is critical for the overall economy to recover, patience with housing is beginning to wear thin.

1) Unemployment

Consumers fearful of losing their jobs haven't been spending on much of anything, and housing tops the list.

That's a trend unlikely to change until unemployment turns around. So it's no coincidence that housing and the jobless rate are expected to recover right about the same time.

2) Credit Availability

Despite all the government efforts to inject liquidity into the capital markets, banks are still reluctant to lend.

While those with squeaky-clean credit histories and a lot of cash on hand are in a better position to get loans, the rest of the buyers are getting kicked out of the marketplace.

3) Price Pressures

Call it the ultimate Catch-22: Housing prices are still too high to attract buyers but too low for the many sellers who are underwater—owing more than their homes are worth—on their mortgages.

That's creating a crisis in the market that can only continue to play out until the supply and demand equation can level.

"The faster you clear off this excess inventory the faster you can stabilize home prices," says Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.

4) Appraisals

The National Association of Realtors has contacted the New York Attorney General's Office to look into new standards under the Home Valuation Code of Conduct that the group says its making it impossible to get a fair assessment done of home values.

5) Short Sales

One of the ways that the industry hopes to get rid of excess inventory is through so-called "short sales" of property. Such transactions occur when a mortgage holder agrees to the sale of a property even though it is less than the amount owed.

Banks, though, have been reluctant to agree to the sales. Critics say the reticence from banks comes from a desire to hold the properties until values go up, a move made easier by recent changes to mark-to-market accounting rules. Banks, though, say prospective buyers are trying to take advantage of the situation by submitting low-ball offers.

Again, nothing new for followers of HighRiseSF, but still a good primer to get you up to speed, in case you don't have time to read through the archives of this blog.

SOURCE: CNBC

New homes sales fall in May; appraisals of greater concern than interest rate increases?

May numbers for new home sales are in; results prove what we've been seeing in the past month due to interest rate increases (as I'm sure will be the case for resale as well):

Battered home builders in the U.S. got even more bad news Wednesday: new-home sales fell unexpectedly in May [Ed. note: not unexpected for HighRiseSF followers], showing the sector must continue searching for stability as it limps through the worst downturn in generations.

Single-family sales decreased 0.6% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, the Commerce Department reported. That's below the 360,000 economists had expected.

Year-over-year, new-home sales were 32.8% lower than the level in May 2008.

In addition, there is growing concern over sales lost due to new appraisal guidelines. Dan Oppenheim, analyst with Credit Suisse, sees this a potential roadblock to real estate recovery:

"We see low appraisals as a key issue we think will disrupt closings and hurt pricing for some time given the more stringent appraisal guidelines enacted last month. This will likely mean that many orders signed in recent months may not result in closings."

Recovery is looking more and more fickle. What does that mean for buyers and sellers? Chances are the best deals are still on the horizon and that we'll see further price decreases nationwide, which could very well pull equities lower in the coming months (and subsequently lead to lower interest rates again).

SOURCE: CNN MONEY

New appraisal rules leading to lost deals

“In the past month, we have suddenly been bombarded with many stories of, at the last moment, transactions falling apart because appraisals are coming in unrealistically low,” said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “As a result it opens up a new round of negotiations between a buyer and a seller or in many cases the buyer just steps away.”

The HVCC forces a firewall between lenders/brokers and home appraisers. Gone are longstanding relationships between a local mortgage broker or lender and a local appraiser.

Now, lenders and brokers are forced to use appraisal management companies (ironically – or maybe not so ironically—many of which are owned by the big banks). These companies hire independent appraisers across the country and call on them to do the local appraisals.

Realtors say some of these appraisers are not only not local, they don’t even have access to the local MLS. They are doing appraisals using computer models, often incorporating distressed sales as comps, and often not even knowing that the home had extensive renovations or an addition. As a result, the appraisals are coming in far lower than the agreed-upon purchase price.

It’s affecting new purchases as well as refinances.

SOURCE: CNBC