Who's buying in this market?

While working in managment of new construction sales offices, my mantra for buying demographics was always "first-timers" and "empty-nesters". Well, buried in an article on shrinking house sizes (and the impending death of McMansions) was a quote from Toll Brothers:

It's also hard to know whether the trend is a the result of a change in attitudes or a change in buyers, according to Kira McCarron, the chief marketing officer for Toll Brothers, an upscale homebuilder...

"The active adult product is taking a bigger share of the market right now," said McCarron, leading to more small homes and dragging the average new home-size data down.

Which is part of the reason I left Toll Brothers in 2005, selling McMansions in San Ramon, to work for condo developers. I knew the coming economic downturn would be weathered better by young professionals who rent, and empty nesters who have 30 years worth of equity built up. They can more easily survive a 25% equity drop, selling their homes which in many cases are already paid off, and moving to urban centers. Looking at sales around the city, a majority of new home buyers are empty nesters and first timers. Add in move-up buyers leaving high-rises for single family homes, and we have a good mix of supply and demand in San Francisco. Our market should continue to be strong as long as this keeps up.

SOURCE: CNN MONEY