"Why Rising Interest Rates May Be a Good Sign"

Two sides to every coin:

Now that a collapse of the U.S. banking system seems unlikely, stock-market watchers have found a new thing to worry about: rising interest rates. The yield on the government's 10-year Treasury bond is up 65% this year to a recent 3.83%. Says top Wall Street strategist Edward Yardeni, "If bond yields get up to 4.5%, so not much higher than they are now, I think we would see a real decline in mortgage refinancing, which would threaten the viability of the economic recovery."

Yardeni and others are worried that higher interest rates could push housing prices lower, and hurt banking profits. What's more, rising rates could indicate that inflation, which has largely disappeared in the recession, is coming back. To be sure, the increase in borrowing costs has already slowed home-loan-refinance activity, but it is unlikely to do much else to damage the economic recovery.

...In fact, some think a modest rise in interest rates could be good for housing demand. "For the fence sitters, rising interest rates could be the motivation they need to buy," says Steven Wieting, Citigroup's US economist.

A valid point, and one that will probably lead to a short spurt in activity (from the fence-sitters) but one that doesn't lead to long-term, sustainable growth.

SOURCE: TIME